Showing posts with label international relations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label international relations. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Review of The Specter of Communism


The Specter of Communism by Melvyn Leffler
This is a brief book on the origins of the Cold War, slanted politically two ways: in its omission of information that undermines the author’s Soviet sympathies and in chastising the Americans for not making the most flattering assumptions about Soviet intentions. Leffler barely mentions, for instance, the pervasive network of Soviet agents throughout American and British government agencies from the 30s on (see the Venona Project). This gave Stalin knowledge of Western plans and strengthened his negotiating position. It also gave him major information on the fission and thermonuclear bombs. Then he fails to mention that the Anglo-American allies permitted the Soviets uncontested access to the Balkans during WWII, despite Churchill’s insistence that the Soviets would impose totalitarian governance on the region postwar. He fails to notice that FDR had intended a joint American-Soviet invasion and occupation of Japan (which would have been strategically disastrous postwar). Leffler ignores the consistently weak hand the Anglo-Americans (i.e., the spy-infested, communist sympathizing Roosevelt administration) played in its dealings with Stalin. Roosevelt is guilty of the terrible folly of presuming moral equivalence between America and the USSR. This presumption led to his belief in fair play with Stalin, a concept utterly alien to that master of realpolitik. Leffler, though, thinks Roosevelt’s approach to Stalin was “shrewd and pragmatic”—an apt description only of Stalin’s management of Roosevelt. Remember, Roosevelt did not demur when Stalin demanded Soviet assimilation of the lands Hitler ceded to him under the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact—a massive concession that condemned many millions to virtual enslavement.

Leffler faults Truman for taking defensive measures in Europe, instead of continuing down the Roosevelt path of incremental surrender.  He accuses Truman of focusing on “the Kremlin’s ominous [postwar] conduct and overlook[ing] signs of Soviet moderation.” He defines moderation here as meaning that Stalin did not conquer new lands at every possible opportunity, but contained himself to submitting only 8 or 10 nations. How is this moderation? Essentially, Leffler wants to excuse all of these Soviet aggressions based on the toll the Soviets had suffered in WWII. Yet, why is this cause that Lithuania or Estonia should cease to exist, that Poland should lose territory and have its people removed to the West, that N. Korea should submit to a puppet communist regime? Stalin, Machiavelli’s best student, took what he believed could be had without a fight (with his spies indicating what America would fight for). Under Roosevelt, it turned out he could get a great deal. Leffler credits Stalin’s moderation for pulling out of Manchuria. But he only did so because he knew it was strategically untenable—the Chinese would eventually fight to recover it, and in the interim it upset the West.

At one point Leffler says of the Truman administration: “U.S. officials were indifferent to the brutality and repression of Stalin’s dictatorship at home so long as the Kremlin showed restraint abroad.” But, of course, they were far from indifferent—otherwise the ideological dimension of the Cold War would have disappeared. In fact, they were fatalistic, quite a distinguishable perspective, and one largely to their credit. They had no reason to believe they could effect regime change, or even the reform of a hostile superpower. Need I mention yet another pro-communist omission by this Leffler hack? China, perhaps a nation of some strategic consequence, went communist in 1949. The effective absence of U.S. aid to the non-communist forces goes unmentioned. He does mention that Stalin aided Mao, but does not dare fault him for it. Double standard? Nah. He merely blames Chiang Kai-shek’s incompetence, then mocks the Republican party for criticizing Truman’s negligent China policy.

He claims Truman in 1947, with the Marshall plan and the Truman Doctrine, had moved “decisively to an adversarial relationship.” Yet, the first was simply economic aid, which was also offered to the Soviets and their substates. The second was a defensive understanding to help freely elected governments resist armed insurrection. To call these measures, under the circumstances, decisively adversarial appears a mischaracterization—is not the insurrection itself, supported by outside communist states, the source of animus? He cites Stalin’s fears that accepting American aid in the Soviet Union and its sphere would have given the U.S. control over the Soviet economy: this is absurd, but Leffler offers no reality check, implying it was a legitimate fear. A few years of aid was no threat even in Eastern Europe, much less in the Soviet Union. Stalin was simply consolidating his empire's ideological purity in the postwar uncertainty. But, declining aid was a paranoid tactical misjudgement. Another unmentioned asymmetry in superpower relations was the freedom of communists in Western nations to form parties and pursue political power. In Eastern Europe this was out of the question. Leffler does kindly notice that American influence abroad was mainly a consequence of “persuasion, inducements, and financial leverage,” implicitly in contrast to Soviet methods. The Berlin blockade receives a straight retelling.

Leffler says that Truman “was willing to fight domestic subversives.” Yet, he kept Harry Dexter White in a leading diplomatic position for two years after the FBI had provided ample evidence that he was a spy. Truman later lied about this, claiming that White was dismissed “promptly.” The considerable damage White did is well-documented. The author does not mention that Truman declined to take the obvious step of intensifying the investigation Soviet espionage in America even after the Soviets tested the fission bomb earlier than expected in 1949. Then Truman vetoed the McCarran Act, his Secretary of State supported Alger Hiss after Hiss was convicted of lying about spying for the Soviets, and he fired his vigorously anti-communist Defense Secretary, Forrestal, for being unpopular with left-wing Democrats (Forrestal died mysteriously a few weeks later).

In apologizing for Soviet connivance in the North Korean attack, Leffler says “Truman and Acheson were unaware of the instrumental effect Kim himself had played in initiating the conflict.” If Stalin and Mao had not approved, it would not have happened. Kim had no effect; he was not instrumental, he was their instrument; this was naked Soviet supported aggression to subjugate a non-communist nation. Stalin is not faulted, of course. He just wanted a “buffer.” They forced Truman’s hand, as Leffler notes: “If the Kremlin thought the Americans would equivocate in a crisis, Moscow might be tempted to act more adventuresomely.” The State Dept, already a leftist stronghold, warned against even trying to free N. Korea—to stand unequivocal was one thing, after all, but to actually believe in the American cause was past the capacity of State. Truman was not sufficiently tamed, though, and set MacArther to take the peninsula entire. The administration’s reluctance to use atomic bombs was reasonable. They were willing to do so if the enemy significantly escalated, also reasonable. Yet, given tremendous qualitative superiority in all respects and quantitative superiority in terms of war production potential, the US could have won decisively without the Bomb. The commitment was not made. Stalemate resulted. I might add that even Eisenhower ducked his responsibilities by signing the Korean armistice right after Stalin died, even though his death presumably weakened the Soviet side.

Of McCarthy Leffler says he focused exclusively on looking for spies, while ignoring foreign policy, though Leffler thinks “few of them actually existed in the American government.” Contra Leffler, counterintelligence is foreign policy! And to claim the Soviets were running only a few spies is demonstrably wrong at this point. The number of communist sympathizers, moreover, at State and elsewhere, bears emphasis as well. But, Leffler contends that “even more threatening to democratic traditions and a free society [than the military-industrial complex] was the new Red Scare.”So, then, unconsciousness of Soviet espionage was the better route—the one which won us the victory of securing nuclear plans for the immaculate dear leader Stalin? McCarthyism was a pathetically inadequate attempt to restore political balance in America after a communist sympathizing four term President and the domestically pro-socialist two term President who succeeded him. Neither the Chief Executive nor the FBI did their jobs in these years. McCarthy’s demagogy was crude and some of it misdirected, since he ought to have concentrated on the federal government and nothing else. The American Left was lucky that the pendulum swing was so weak and so late: they were able to hide their revolutionary machinations for almost twenty years behind the Depression, the World War, and the onset of the Cold War. They had transfomed America from a democracy to a socialist democracy and prepared the ground for the bureaucratic socialist oligarchy forthcoming. In his conclusion, Leffler claims that the Americans “exaggerated the ability of the Soviets to capitalize on [postwar] developments,” including those led by “revolutionary nationalist leaders” in the third world—an absurd claim, motivated again by this Soviet apologist’s urge to blame America first, a habit consistently evidenced in his book from beginning to end.

Leffler does a better job on the conceptual level of explaining the interactions of power and ideology in Cold War tensions. The dynamic of the Cold War: the rivalry was one of ideology and power politics. Power politics is always territorial, but in this case, since each ideology was universalist, both elements of the rivalry urged territorial expansion. Thus, Stalin wanted mastery over Eastern Europe to expand his geopolitical power and to spread his ideology to new lands. And American influence over Western Europe was also geopolitical and ideological. The two motivations usually overlapped, though it might be argued the Soviets were more consistent in aligning the two. American support for the Shah of Iran or the Afghan mujahideen were power political plays, but contrary to our ideology. Even the Soviets, though, had close ties with India, a quasi-capitalist democracy. Generally, when it came to a choice, power politics proved more important to each side.  The game of power politics never yet has ceased, though it forms itself into a variety of configurations in different times and places—in this case a bipolar configuration was inevitable. Before the war it was multipolar, given the power of Germany, Japan, the UK, and France. The ideological dimension has rarely approached the prominence of the capitalist-communist opposition. Comparable to it, though, were wars arising from the theological splits of Muslim-Christian, Muslim-Hindu, Protestant-Catholic, and such like. As a final spur to make the security dilemma inescapable, both powers in the Cold War believed they had to attain at least equal global territorial power to ensure the long-term continuance of their regimes. Neither could long survive international isolation.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Rethinking Conservatism

The problem with conservatism in America is that it always loses. It was losing before the land was even settled. The Puritans were the leftists of their time, too leftist to remain in the most leftist nation in the world, and America has adopted the spirit of the Puritans to guide its political and social development. As Orwell made clear, the end game of leftism is the abolition of memory, the imprisonment of the mind, the coercive imposition of equal conditions of body and mind for all people--in other words, the most absolute tyranny ever conceived--but never thus far fully implemented.The Soviet Union was merely a primitive and premature attempt in this direction. Our elites envision a purer achievement. They are more clever and, technologically, much better equipped to pursue their end. Chinese elites posit a similar goal in the long run, though their wonderful new infatuation with Leninist capitalism has temporarily diverted their attention. The world lies at the feet of this double hegemony.

The following website offers a summary of the ideas of Mencius Moldbug, who has an unconventional notion of how conservatives (renamed reactionaries to escape the taint of centuries of retreat) may finally start winning in America (and by extension throughout the American imperium) and revive American fortunes and save us from the usual fate of empires. Moldbug is samizdat for the 21st century. Singapore (surprisingly little emulated) is probably the closest realized approach to this conception of government:


 
My two main issues with these ideas:

1. Classical international law may not be possible for much longer given the continuing spread of WMDs to smaller and smaller entities. This technological fait accompli, provided that it proceeds apace into disseminated bio- and nanoweapons capabilities, would create conditions for either anarchy or a single global state. This is because deterrence does not work for these types of weapons. This would be sufficient to undo the Moldbug plan.

2. The other issue is the risk that some states will be commandeered by psychopaths who, moved more by passion than profit, visit grievous harms upon their people or decide to predate upon neighboring states. However, reactionary arrangements do not create this risk. They suffer the lesser flaw of not necessarily eradicating it. The risk of non-reactionary arrangments going psycho is sufficiently clear from history: any form of government yet tried faces this risk to one degree or another. The reactionary neocameralist form ought to incur a lower risk than most, perhaps lower than any, assuming it is attempted in a civilized nation. Even with global implementation of neocameralist regimes, the requirement of an international balance of power would remain in effect (at least until the problems associated with my first issue transcend known contingencies).

If you're interested in readings from the source, the collected works of Moldbug, as generously and most needfully reorganized by an acolyte:

 
I'm working my way through--verbose stuff, but with compensations in cleverness and humor.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers


Some important intangibles are left out:

Most are in our favor (we beat them at innovation, IP culture, lower corruption, better environment protection, political and economic and intellectual freedoms, lingering traditions of liberty and freedom and individualism)

Some are in their favor (we're hurt by political correctness and blacks and mexicans and government unions and a parasitic, morally corrupt lower class and a "financialized" upper class of similarly low character).

Also, it's not just us vs. them. China is encircled by a number of medium powers (Russia, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) and one medium power with potential to become a great power (India). The only one of those nations with a China infatuation is Russia--and Russia is still in rapid decline, with an economy entirely dependent on natural resource extraction (a dumb economy) that recently lost its position among the top ten world economies. Top 17 economies circa 2011(notice that Brazil is almost in the top 5):



GDP
Nation Rank Population Total
U.S. 1 313 14800
Japan 3 126.5 5500
China 2 1337 5880
Germany 4 81.5 3380
France 5 65.3 2600
U.K. 6 62.7 2250
Italy 8 61 2070
Russia 11 138.7 1500
Spain 12 46.7 1400
Brazil 7 203 2200
Canada 10 34 1600
India 9 1189 1650
Mexico 14 114 1080
Australia 13 21.8 1270
Netherlands 16 16.8 790
Korea, South 15 48.8 1050
Turkey 17 78.8 780


Three of these have been on a rapid growth trajectory, doubling in size every 7-10 years:

China for 30 years

India for 20 years

Brazil for 10 years