Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers


Some important intangibles are left out:

Most are in our favor (we beat them at innovation, IP culture, lower corruption, better environment protection, political and economic and intellectual freedoms, lingering traditions of liberty and freedom and individualism)

Some are in their favor (we're hurt by political correctness and blacks and mexicans and government unions and a parasitic, morally corrupt lower class and a "financialized" upper class of similarly low character).

Also, it's not just us vs. them. China is encircled by a number of medium powers (Russia, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) and one medium power with potential to become a great power (India). The only one of those nations with a China infatuation is Russia--and Russia is still in rapid decline, with an economy entirely dependent on natural resource extraction (a dumb economy) that recently lost its position among the top ten world economies. Top 17 economies circa 2011(notice that Brazil is almost in the top 5):



GDP
Nation Rank Population Total
U.S. 1 313 14800
Japan 3 126.5 5500
China 2 1337 5880
Germany 4 81.5 3380
France 5 65.3 2600
U.K. 6 62.7 2250
Italy 8 61 2070
Russia 11 138.7 1500
Spain 12 46.7 1400
Brazil 7 203 2200
Canada 10 34 1600
India 9 1189 1650
Mexico 14 114 1080
Australia 13 21.8 1270
Netherlands 16 16.8 790
Korea, South 15 48.8 1050
Turkey 17 78.8 780


Three of these have been on a rapid growth trajectory, doubling in size every 7-10 years:

China for 30 years

India for 20 years

Brazil for 10 years

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