Monday, December 31, 2012

The Left Unleashed--Moldbug Seeks Redress

The mad genius of the alt-right thinkers (Mencius Moldbug of Unqualified Reservations) nominates the American ruling class "The Cathedral." It comprises, by order of rank, the professoriate of the elite universities, the civil service (including our life-tenured Congress and Supreme Court), the media, the entertainment industry, and public school teachers. The op-ed linked above, by a law professor at an elite law school, is convoluted almost to the point of contradiction and stands as an absolute paean to the current Cathedral--truly one of the dumbest articles, substantively, I've seen at the NY Times. Also, not coincidentally, one of purest ideologically, that is, one of the most brilliant in terms of form and structure--which is impressive, since editorial writers, especially on the left, are primarily engaged in a status game in which the purest theologically, I mean, ideologically wins the prize. This game can be rather creative given that there are no rules proscribing flights of fantasy or violations of the reality principle. The overarching stupidity here, of course, is that he advocates freedom from the constitution in the same article in which he (accurately) boasts that we have frequently, and by implication ever more frequently, violated its provisions throughout our history. I also like the strategic omission of any mention of the provision made for amending the Constitution, a provision many times put to use. It might be interesting, though, to attempt an aesthetic appreciation of this piece, exemplary decadent art object that it is. 
 
As a counterstrike to this Leftist insanity, here's a good intro to Moldbuggian thought: http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2009/01/gentle-introduction-to-unqualified.html  And here are my selections from the highly interesting Moldbug on the nature of the Cathedral and his mission to proselytize the shepherds (the boldface is mine):

 
 
 One way to elect a new people is to import them, of course. For example, to put it bluntly, the Democratic Party has captured California, once a Republican stronghold, by importing arbitrary numbers of Mexicans. Indeed the Third World is stocked with literally billions of potential Democrats, just waiting to come to America so that Washington can buy their votes. Inner Party functionaries cackle gleefully over this achievement. (BTW, isn't that photo of Frank Rich amazing? Doesn't it just radiate pure power and contempt? Henry VIII would probably have asked the painter to make him look less like Xerxes, King of Kings.)

But this act of brutal Machiavellian thug politics, larded as usual with the most gushing of sentimental platitudes, is picayune next to the ordinary practice of democratic governments: to elect a new people by re-educating the children of the old. In the long run, power in a democracy belongs to its information organs: the press, the schools, and most of all the universities, who mint the thoughts that the others plant. For simplicity, we have dubbed this complex the Cathedral.
The Cathedral is a feedback loop. It has no center, no master planners. Everyone, even the Sulzbergers, is replaceable. In a democracy, mass opinion creates power. Power diverts funds to the manufacturers of opinion, who manufacture more, etc. Not a terribly complicated cycle.

This feedback loop generates a playing field on which the most competitive ideas are not those which best correspond to reality, but those which produce the strongest feedback. The Cathedral is constantly electing a new people who (a) support the Cathedral more and more, and (b) support a political system which makes the Cathedral stronger and stronger.

For example, libertarian policies are not competitive in the Cathedral, because libertarianism minimizes employment for public-policy experts. Thus we would expect libertarians to come in two flavors: the intellectually marginalized, and the intellectually compromised...
 
What we need is a sort of counter-Cathedral: an institution which is actually more trustworthy than the university system. The universities are the brain of USG, and the best way to kill anything is to shoot it in the head.

To be right when the Cathedral is wrong is to demonstrate that we live under a system of government which is bound together by the same glue that held up Communism: lies. You do not need a triple-digit IQ to know that a regime held up by lies is doomed. You also do not need a triple-digit IQ to help bring down a doomed regime. Everyone will volunteer for that job. It's as much fun as anything in the world.
 
Solely for the purpose of discussion, let's call this counter-Cathedral Resartus - from Carlyle's great novel, Sartor Resartus (The Tailor Reclothed).

The thesis of Resartus is that the marketplace of ideas, free and blossoming as it may seem, is or at least may be infected with lies. These lies all have one thing in common: they are related to the policies of modern democratic governments. Misinformation justifies misgovernment; misgovernment subsidizes misinformation. This is our feedback loop.

On the other hand, it's clear that modern democratic governments are doing many things right. Perhaps in all circumstances they are doing the best they can. Perhaps there is no misinformation at all. The hypothesis that such feedback loops can form is not a demonstration that they exist.

Therefore, the mission of Resartus is to establish, using that crowdsourced wiki-power we are all familiar with, the truth on every dubious subject. Perhaps the truth will turn out to be the official story, in which case we can be happy.

The two sites today which are most like Resartus are Climate Audit and Gene Expression. Both of these are, in my humble opinion, scientific milestones. CA's subject is climatology; GNXP's subject is human biodiversity.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Review of The Specter of Communism


The Specter of Communism by Melvyn Leffler
This is a brief book on the origins of the Cold War, slanted politically two ways: in its omission of information that undermines the author’s Soviet sympathies and in chastising the Americans for not making the most flattering assumptions about Soviet intentions. Leffler barely mentions, for instance, the pervasive network of Soviet agents throughout American and British government agencies from the 30s on (see the Venona Project). This gave Stalin knowledge of Western plans and strengthened his negotiating position. It also gave him major information on the fission and thermonuclear bombs. Then he fails to mention that the Anglo-American allies permitted the Soviets uncontested access to the Balkans during WWII, despite Churchill’s insistence that the Soviets would impose totalitarian governance on the region postwar. He fails to notice that FDR had intended a joint American-Soviet invasion and occupation of Japan (which would have been strategically disastrous postwar). Leffler ignores the consistently weak hand the Anglo-Americans (i.e., the spy-infested, communist sympathizing Roosevelt administration) played in its dealings with Stalin. Roosevelt is guilty of the terrible folly of presuming moral equivalence between America and the USSR. This presumption led to his belief in fair play with Stalin, a concept utterly alien to that master of realpolitik. Leffler, though, thinks Roosevelt’s approach to Stalin was “shrewd and pragmatic”—an apt description only of Stalin’s management of Roosevelt. Remember, Roosevelt did not demur when Stalin demanded Soviet assimilation of the lands Hitler ceded to him under the 1939 Nazi-Soviet Pact—a massive concession that condemned many millions to virtual enslavement.

Leffler faults Truman for taking defensive measures in Europe, instead of continuing down the Roosevelt path of incremental surrender.  He accuses Truman of focusing on “the Kremlin’s ominous [postwar] conduct and overlook[ing] signs of Soviet moderation.” He defines moderation here as meaning that Stalin did not conquer new lands at every possible opportunity, but contained himself to submitting only 8 or 10 nations. How is this moderation? Essentially, Leffler wants to excuse all of these Soviet aggressions based on the toll the Soviets had suffered in WWII. Yet, why is this cause that Lithuania or Estonia should cease to exist, that Poland should lose territory and have its people removed to the West, that N. Korea should submit to a puppet communist regime? Stalin, Machiavelli’s best student, took what he believed could be had without a fight (with his spies indicating what America would fight for). Under Roosevelt, it turned out he could get a great deal. Leffler credits Stalin’s moderation for pulling out of Manchuria. But he only did so because he knew it was strategically untenable—the Chinese would eventually fight to recover it, and in the interim it upset the West.

At one point Leffler says of the Truman administration: “U.S. officials were indifferent to the brutality and repression of Stalin’s dictatorship at home so long as the Kremlin showed restraint abroad.” But, of course, they were far from indifferent—otherwise the ideological dimension of the Cold War would have disappeared. In fact, they were fatalistic, quite a distinguishable perspective, and one largely to their credit. They had no reason to believe they could effect regime change, or even the reform of a hostile superpower. Need I mention yet another pro-communist omission by this Leffler hack? China, perhaps a nation of some strategic consequence, went communist in 1949. The effective absence of U.S. aid to the non-communist forces goes unmentioned. He does mention that Stalin aided Mao, but does not dare fault him for it. Double standard? Nah. He merely blames Chiang Kai-shek’s incompetence, then mocks the Republican party for criticizing Truman’s negligent China policy.

He claims Truman in 1947, with the Marshall plan and the Truman Doctrine, had moved “decisively to an adversarial relationship.” Yet, the first was simply economic aid, which was also offered to the Soviets and their substates. The second was a defensive understanding to help freely elected governments resist armed insurrection. To call these measures, under the circumstances, decisively adversarial appears a mischaracterization—is not the insurrection itself, supported by outside communist states, the source of animus? He cites Stalin’s fears that accepting American aid in the Soviet Union and its sphere would have given the U.S. control over the Soviet economy: this is absurd, but Leffler offers no reality check, implying it was a legitimate fear. A few years of aid was no threat even in Eastern Europe, much less in the Soviet Union. Stalin was simply consolidating his empire's ideological purity in the postwar uncertainty. But, declining aid was a paranoid tactical misjudgement. Another unmentioned asymmetry in superpower relations was the freedom of communists in Western nations to form parties and pursue political power. In Eastern Europe this was out of the question. Leffler does kindly notice that American influence abroad was mainly a consequence of “persuasion, inducements, and financial leverage,” implicitly in contrast to Soviet methods. The Berlin blockade receives a straight retelling.

Leffler says that Truman “was willing to fight domestic subversives.” Yet, he kept Harry Dexter White in a leading diplomatic position for two years after the FBI had provided ample evidence that he was a spy. Truman later lied about this, claiming that White was dismissed “promptly.” The considerable damage White did is well-documented. The author does not mention that Truman declined to take the obvious step of intensifying the investigation Soviet espionage in America even after the Soviets tested the fission bomb earlier than expected in 1949. Then Truman vetoed the McCarran Act, his Secretary of State supported Alger Hiss after Hiss was convicted of lying about spying for the Soviets, and he fired his vigorously anti-communist Defense Secretary, Forrestal, for being unpopular with left-wing Democrats (Forrestal died mysteriously a few weeks later).

In apologizing for Soviet connivance in the North Korean attack, Leffler says “Truman and Acheson were unaware of the instrumental effect Kim himself had played in initiating the conflict.” If Stalin and Mao had not approved, it would not have happened. Kim had no effect; he was not instrumental, he was their instrument; this was naked Soviet supported aggression to subjugate a non-communist nation. Stalin is not faulted, of course. He just wanted a “buffer.” They forced Truman’s hand, as Leffler notes: “If the Kremlin thought the Americans would equivocate in a crisis, Moscow might be tempted to act more adventuresomely.” The State Dept, already a leftist stronghold, warned against even trying to free N. Korea—to stand unequivocal was one thing, after all, but to actually believe in the American cause was past the capacity of State. Truman was not sufficiently tamed, though, and set MacArther to take the peninsula entire. The administration’s reluctance to use atomic bombs was reasonable. They were willing to do so if the enemy significantly escalated, also reasonable. Yet, given tremendous qualitative superiority in all respects and quantitative superiority in terms of war production potential, the US could have won decisively without the Bomb. The commitment was not made. Stalemate resulted. I might add that even Eisenhower ducked his responsibilities by signing the Korean armistice right after Stalin died, even though his death presumably weakened the Soviet side.

Of McCarthy Leffler says he focused exclusively on looking for spies, while ignoring foreign policy, though Leffler thinks “few of them actually existed in the American government.” Contra Leffler, counterintelligence is foreign policy! And to claim the Soviets were running only a few spies is demonstrably wrong at this point. The number of communist sympathizers, moreover, at State and elsewhere, bears emphasis as well. But, Leffler contends that “even more threatening to democratic traditions and a free society [than the military-industrial complex] was the new Red Scare.”So, then, unconsciousness of Soviet espionage was the better route—the one which won us the victory of securing nuclear plans for the immaculate dear leader Stalin? McCarthyism was a pathetically inadequate attempt to restore political balance in America after a communist sympathizing four term President and the domestically pro-socialist two term President who succeeded him. Neither the Chief Executive nor the FBI did their jobs in these years. McCarthy’s demagogy was crude and some of it misdirected, since he ought to have concentrated on the federal government and nothing else. The American Left was lucky that the pendulum swing was so weak and so late: they were able to hide their revolutionary machinations for almost twenty years behind the Depression, the World War, and the onset of the Cold War. They had transfomed America from a democracy to a socialist democracy and prepared the ground for the bureaucratic socialist oligarchy forthcoming. In his conclusion, Leffler claims that the Americans “exaggerated the ability of the Soviets to capitalize on [postwar] developments,” including those led by “revolutionary nationalist leaders” in the third world—an absurd claim, motivated again by this Soviet apologist’s urge to blame America first, a habit consistently evidenced in his book from beginning to end.

Leffler does a better job on the conceptual level of explaining the interactions of power and ideology in Cold War tensions. The dynamic of the Cold War: the rivalry was one of ideology and power politics. Power politics is always territorial, but in this case, since each ideology was universalist, both elements of the rivalry urged territorial expansion. Thus, Stalin wanted mastery over Eastern Europe to expand his geopolitical power and to spread his ideology to new lands. And American influence over Western Europe was also geopolitical and ideological. The two motivations usually overlapped, though it might be argued the Soviets were more consistent in aligning the two. American support for the Shah of Iran or the Afghan mujahideen were power political plays, but contrary to our ideology. Even the Soviets, though, had close ties with India, a quasi-capitalist democracy. Generally, when it came to a choice, power politics proved more important to each side.  The game of power politics never yet has ceased, though it forms itself into a variety of configurations in different times and places—in this case a bipolar configuration was inevitable. Before the war it was multipolar, given the power of Germany, Japan, the UK, and France. The ideological dimension has rarely approached the prominence of the capitalist-communist opposition. Comparable to it, though, were wars arising from the theological splits of Muslim-Christian, Muslim-Hindu, Protestant-Catholic, and such like. As a final spur to make the security dilemma inescapable, both powers in the Cold War believed they had to attain at least equal global territorial power to ensure the long-term continuance of their regimes. Neither could long survive international isolation.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Advantaging the Offense

First a commercially available drone aircraft for $1200, now this thing. Counterinsurgency looks like a less and less attractive career.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Doing It Wrong

Bureaucracy is an animal that operates in the same inefficient, self-expansionary fashion whether it finds itself in an entitlement environment, a military environment, or a regulatory environment. In the instance here investigated, regardless of the stakes, quite content to ignore the lives lost and billions squandered, our military bureaucracy grinds on blindly and brutally, led by the madmen charged with our political fate.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Singapore's Path

This is what a country can do today when it is run like a business, allows immigrants in selectively, and does not encourage failure--also, when it ignores America's ruling class and its politically correct advice. Lee Kuan Yew even urges eugenics upon Singaporeans, and they believe in its advantages (though I'm not sure they act on it). And China's leaders are well acquainted with this model of development and governance. If they're willing and able to replicate it closely, they will so far surpass us that we'll be relegated to the pile of second rate powers with Japan, Indonesia, Germany, Brazil, Mexico, and a few others.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Dignity or Decline

 
A solid editorial that smacks both parties.
 
But, he should have brought out the implication that the Republicans are in a much worse position than they realize. The breakdown of local associations is virtually impossible to rebuild after a generation or two of absence. Welfarism caused the breakdown by displacing these traditional means of supporting the indigent, but removing welfare does not cause it magically to repair itself. If major government support were discontinued, a collapse into third world chaos would follow in large swathes of our great cities. The Democratic solution is to expand these areas of dependency, to render ever more of the population idle (but half-imprisoned) serfs on the DC estate. The Republican strategy is denialism and electoral defeat. This is a vicious cycle. And it only goes one way. As someone said, Cthulhu only swims left.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Some Race Psychology, the Jews, the State

In thinking about the perversities of human psychology, the last half-century of "white guilt" struck me as an especially extreme example. A large part of this process derives from the escalating social status competition among whites to prove their empathy and spiritual generosity. Beyond that I think there is a major current unmentioned: the deep pleasure the American Jews derive from stoking the racial antagonism between black and white--and from aggressively portraying whites as always in the wrong. The atavistic Jewish assumption that the Outsider (like the Jew) must be the victim by definition, but presumptively superior at bottom, plays out endlessly in favor of blacks in the Jewish dominated spheres of the media and academia. These power centers, source springs of contemporary thought, were overtaken by our Jews in the sixties, whereupon they assumed script-writing duties from the native strain of pseudo-egalitarians, the Brahmins, and became the marketers and arbiters of the West's new ruling ideology, cultural Marxism. This hardly surprises given that the European Jews invented this ideology and the Brahminate was led by the logical extrapolation of its own super-Protestantism to cede power to a people deemed, by themselves and the Brahmins, to be morally superior. And do I state anything more than a tautology in noting that this ideology serves Jewish ends? But, to be fair to the Jews in America, whether they merely pressed further the trend that the Brahmins had long since commenced or someway twisted or intensified it remains dubious. Whether the Brahmins would have continued thuswise and thusfar absent Jewish pressure and influence remains very much debatable. What is unacceptable, however, in a sense that does not depend on the answers to these issues of responsibility, is the prohibition on any criticism of Jews. They are the best propagandists around--the most powerful in the world today, since they ride the American tiger. To let them run loose without organized criticism or resistance, our modus operandi for at least 45 years, will unleash yet more national disintegration, and dissolution of tradition, strength, will, liberty, healthy moral perspective. A nation without a national religion, one which at least dominates the moral perspective of the elite, will always tend toward spiritual collapse. Cultural Marxism is not a true religion. It is propaganda, a web of words, a self-referential system, a circle of deceit ever-morphing into more destructive patterns of social organization, an open Jewish conspiracy from which only the Jews have any chance of gathering strength, and that only by dispersing the power of competing interests and shaping the competition to favor their particular talents (intellect, with all the advantages that confers in a highly complex propagandistic-bureaucratic-technological civilization, and ethnic networking). The hypocrisy is impressive: the Jews support policies which splinter America along ethnic lines and set the various ethnicities against each other, then proclaim themselves transcendent above the fray, immaculate and past criticism.
 
Given the propensities of the Jews in America and Europe, anti-Semitism among the masses is only surprising when absent. The range of knowledge, subtleties, distinctions, arguments, counterarguments, and context necessary to evade the temptation of anti-Semitism is not a trifling challenge. When the masses escape from anti-Semitism it happens simply through conformism, when conformity so directs them--though they are, of course, just as susceptible to follow conformity into it as out of it. To complicate matters still more, the Ashkenazi Jews give great evidence of superior intelligence vis-à-vis gentiles, which leads them to disproportionate leadership positions wherever they choose to apply their talents. Further, many Jews possess a keen consciousness of their position in the world, and it follows that far more Jews than gentiles will achieve a reasonably complete understanding of the two sides of the intricate argument about anti-Semitism. This means these astute Jews assume any outcropping of anti-Semitism must be pure stupidity or pure evil. They are wrong. It is easy for non-conformist people of average intelligence and average knowledge to descend into some sort of anti-Semitism, mild, moderate, or severe as temperament and circumstances may mold them. The Jews rely almost exclusively on their propaganda leverage to disarm these potential converts against them. But, is that sufficient in the long run? It seems that North America is the only place where significant Jewish populations are or were found that lacks significant anti-Semitism. Why wouldn't it be a better survival strategy for American Jews to ally themselves with gentile interests, rather than undermining them at every chance? Perhaps they think that this was the strategy that failed in Europe--a questionable interpretation in view of heavy Jewish influence over European Marxist organizations from their inception. Marxism was, after all, intended to destroy all European traditions and effectively did so where imposed.
 
Since I've veered from the white psychological response to blacks ("white guilt") into Jewish intellectual and political dominance, and from thence into the issue of anti-Semitism, I will note a few considerations of the latter made by other writers. The first two are by a Jewish convert to Catholicism.
 
With this take I generally agree, though I think he underplays the degree of Jewish influence on the left and the possibility that they've pushed us faster and further to the left than the Brahmins intended.
 
Auster's four part solution to the Jewish question in America looks quite sensible, except that it's an example of the characteristic conservative fallacy of thinking backwards, as if we could choose to enter the past rather than the future. But the values are respectable and he makes the crucial point that submission to the leftist strategies pushed by our Jews ought not to be undertaken for the sole purpose of dodging charges of anti-Semitism. If "the Jews as Jews" engage in destructive political policies, they must be opposed. This is not anti-Semitism; it is self-protection. It is a healthy immune system in action--the immune system does not care what a pathogen is called. Whether a policy is Jew-born, black-born, woman-born does not matter: if pathogenic, it must be killed. Auster also makes clear another major conceptual issue: "the restoration of a white gentile majority culture that believes in itself" would reinvigorate America and need not prompt the appearance of anti-Semitism or anti-Africanism, as our current elite seems to assume. I would argue, with Nietzsche, that it is weakness that produces hatred, not strength.
 
Speaking of the great man, I recall a couple of passages in Human, All Too Human. 

Section 475 The European man and the abolition of nations is my favorite example of Nietzsche on the Jews. It's preceded by a section that notes that in ancient Greece the polis, guided by the self-interested prejudice of the political class, was oriented in practice and in (Platonic) theory to achieve cultural stasis--an effort that failed in face of the countervailing tendency of the state to provoke the individual to an intensified pursuit of honor. He also asserts that if culture develops despite the educational constraints of the polis, it also develops without the polis. And for N. cultural achievement, the flowering of human creative genius, is the highest goal of human life. The first part of section 475 then discusses the gradual intermixing of the races of Europe, beginning with the intellectual and commercial elites. He also castigates the madness of nationalism and notes that its promoters are mostly small slivers of society and medieval political relics (odd, since there was little nationalism evident in the Middle Ages). An enlightened European, in opposition to nationalist trends, ought to declare himself "simply a good European and [ought] actively to work for the amalgamation of nations..." N. expects this to reduce the power of the state and favor cultural development. He then proceeds, in the Section's second part, to the Jews and their role in his projected Europe, which I quote complete from my melding of the Kaufmann and Hollingdale translations:
Incidentally: the whole problem of the Jews exists only in nation states, for here their energy and higher intelligence, their accumulated capital of spirit and will, gathered from generation to generation in a long school of suffering, must become so preponderant as to arouse mass envy and hatred. Therefore, the literary obscenity of leading the Jews to slaughter as the scapegoats of every conceivable public and internal misfortune spreads in almost every nation--and the more so the more nationalist its posture. As soon as it's no longer a matter of preserving nations, but of producing the strongest possible European mixed race, the Jew is just as useful and desirable an ingredient as any other national remnant. Unpleasant, even dangerous, qualities can be found in every nation and every individual: it is cruel to demand that the Jew be an exception. In him, these qualities may even be dangerous and revolting to an unusual degree; and perhaps the young stock-exchange Jew is altogether the most disgusting invention of mankind. Nonetheless I should like to know how much one must forgive a people in a total accounting when they've had the most painful history of all peoples, not without the fault of all of us, and when one owes to them the noblest man (Christ), the purest sage (Spinoza), the most powerful book, and the most effective moral law in the world. Moreover, in the darkest times of the Middle Ages, when the Asiatic cloud masses had gathered heavily over Europe, it was Jewish free-thinkers, scholars, and physicians who clung to the banner of enlightenment and spiritual independence in the face of the harshest personal pressures and defended Europe against Asia. We owe it to their exertions, not least of all, that a more natural, more rational, and certainly unmythical interpretation of the world was eventually able to triumph again, and that the bond of culture which now links us with the enlightenment of Greco-Roman antiquity remained unbroken. If Christianity has done everything to orientalize the occident, Judaism has helped significantly to occidentalize it again and again: which in a certain sense means making Europe's task and history a continuation of the Greek.
The following section explains why the visionary Judeo-Greek synthesis will soon cast the Catholic Church, for some still an ideal universalist institution, into "shadow and oblivion." For it was founded on fictions and reduced the fitness of its adherents and subjects--whereas what is to come will be founded on science and seek mastery of reality, not of illusions. I would note, though, that accidentally, by way of its severe prohibition on cousin marriages, intended initially to break down tribal allegiances, the Catholic Church, in this respect at least, increased genetic fitness and created the possibility of new, perhaps more civilized, social forms. Its overall effect on genetic fitness, by slandering sex and attempting to enforce celibacy upon a substantial proportion of the population, including some of its most capable members (eg, priests), is another matter of uncertainty.
 
Of course, Hitler and Lenin blew up the tracks and sent the train down a different way than realism or Greek-founded cultural unity. Both put their considerable force of will at the disposal of ideas N. strongly condemned and argued against. Following Hitler's war, the Western elite then succumbed to the advocates of "slave morality," Jews not least among them, but firstmost and foremost of the intellectual advocates and justifiers, having begun this project in earnest well before the war. This infatuation with the basest features and incarnations of humanity spirals ever further away from Nietzsche's dream of cultural apotheosis and the overman.
 
An earlier section (472) in the book considers the need for religion to sustain the governance of a state, and speculates at length on the interactions of democratic governance and religion, concluding that democracy slowly crushes religion, then the state itself disintegrates, leaving only private citizens and corporations--which happens as follows: The rulers and the priests traditionally are co-dependents, and cooperate for mutual benefit. The rulers need the priests because "The power that lies in the unity of popular sentiment, in the fact that everyone holds the same opinions and has the same objectives, is sealed and protected by religion..." But, among the rulers, this eventuates in a sense of superiority over religion--"which is why free-spiritedness has its origin here." In a democracy, however, religion breaks from governance and becomes autonomous. The rulers mirror the religious predilections of the people, preventing the cynical use of religion for power. Not being a lever of power, the rulers concede its manifestations to the preferences of the people and render it a private matter. Permitting personal interpretation of religion then intensifies religious feelings and splinters a unified religion many ways, as in the Reformation. Interreligious conflict and competition exposes the frailties of all faiths to the most observant; higher men become ever more irreligious. And these higher men are also the rulers, who will start to work to contain the power of religion, now tending toward anarchy, thus transforming the state from an institution sanctified by its priests to one opposed to them. The state is then disenchanted in the minds of the religious. So do the rulers become, in their competition with the religious, statists--"in which development they are secretly aided by the fact that, since their sundering from religion, hearts in these circles have felt a sense of emptiness which they are seeking provisionally to fill with a kind of substitute in the form of devotion to the state." This may be related to the origins of our present dispensation. He then sees two possibilities: an enlightened despotism if the religionists win; but if the statists win they may, "perhaps through schooling and education, in the course of generations undermine the propagation of their opponents and finally render it impossible. Then, however, they too will experience a slackening of their enthusiasm for the state: it will grow ever clearer that" there is no basis for a religious sense of the state. "Henceforth the individual will see only that side of [the state] that promises to be useful or threatens to be harmful to him, and will bend all his efforts to acquiring influence upon it." This will produce instability, alternating governments.
None of the measures effected by a government will be guaranteed continuity; everyone will draw back from undertakings that require great tending for decades or centuries if their fruits are to mature. No one will feel towards a law any greater obligation than that of bowing for the moment to the force which backs up the law: one will then at once set to work to subvert it with a new force, the creation of a new majority. Finally--one can say this with certainty--distrust of all government, insight into the uselessness and destructiveness of the short-winded struggles will impel men to a quite novel resolve: the resolve to do away with the concept of the state, to the abolition of the distinction between public and private. Private companies will step by step absorb the business of the state...Disregard for and the decline and death of the state, the liberation of the private person (I take care not to say: of the individual) is the consequence of the democratic conception of the state; it is in this that its mission lies...The prospect presented by this certain decay is, however, not in every respect an unhappy one: the prudence and self-interest of men are of all their qualities the best developed; if the state is no longer equal to the demands of these forces then the last thing that will ensue is chaos: an invention more suited to their purpose than the state was will gain victory over the state. How many an organizing principle has mankind not seen die out...To work for the dissemination and realization of this notion is another thing, to be sure: one has to have a very presumptuous idea of one's own intelligence and scarcely half an understanding of history to set one's hand to the plough already--while no one can yet show what seedcorn is afterwards to be scattered on the riven soil.  
The problem with the withering away of the state, whether envisioned by Marx or Nietzsche, is the same problem that Shaw laughed at: "Anarchism is a game at which the police can beat you." Nations operate in contact with other nations. A healthy nation sees an ungoverned region as a standing invitation to conquer, unless it's not worth conquering (see, Somalia). Perhaps sufficient corporate determination to organize a defense could change this calculus, at least to the point that it becomes too expensive and (after warfare's damage to people and plant) unrewarding to conquer. Or, of course, the dreams of our elites could manifest, we could achieve one world government, which would then be secure enough, in theory, to wither away--there being no remaining policemen. Yet the furthest overreaches of statism, whether in the USSR or Sweden, do not disintegrate the state. It seems that, having won the domestic battles against religious and other conservative opponents, the Western statists at least have now reoriented their state religion to battle foreign threats to their statism and to invite in such threats as immigrants, deemed future converts to statism. For example, they wish to vanquish the Islamism of their immigrant masses, then go abroad as well to undermine that religion on its native soil. These statists are specialists in propaganda and they trust in its endless efficacy against all resistance. And they hit upon, even in N.'s time the centripetal social force of governmental welfare programs, now advanced to the stage of rendering most of the population materially dependent upon the state. Thus have they achieved a firm grip on the thoughts of the citizenry and on their needful resources. The people do not see the pointlessness of the state because they have become, in crucial ways, integral to it. They have come to believe that they are the state: l'Etat, c'est nous.  But, this notion of the disintegration of the state aside, most of Nietzsche's narrative played out as anticipated. Only the endgame presents more madness than he thought to project.
 
He follows this lengthy meditation with section 473 Socialism with regard to its means:
Socialism is the fanciful younger brother of the almost expired despotism whose heir it wants to be; its endeavors are thus in the profoundest sense reactionary. For it desires an abundance of state power such as only despotism has ever had; indeed it outbids all the despotisms of the past inasmuch as it expressly aspires to the annihilation of the individual, who appears to it like an unauthorized luxury of nature destined to be improved into a useful organ of the community...it requires a more complete subservience of the citizen to the absolute state than has ever existed before; and since it can no longer even count on the ancient religious piety towards the state but has, rather, involuntarily to work ceaselessly for its abolition--because, that is, it works for the abolition of all existing states--socialism itself can hope to exist only for brief periods here and there, and then only through the exercise of the  most extreme terrorism...Socialism can serve to teach, in a truly brutal and impressive fashion, what danger there lies in all accumulations of state power, and to that extent to implant mistrust of the state itself.
The tide did turn against the state in the seventies and eighties. Thatcher, Reagan, Deng, and Gorbachev rode or succumbed to this turn--though the causes extended the beyond the impiousness and moral depravity of socialist states. But, the economic motive, large as it was, cannot be cleanly separated from the moral climate. The dehumanization inflicted by socialist bureaucracy was enough to diminished economic output by process of demoralization. This was superadded to the unworkable attempt to use central planning to organize the economy, instead of financial incentives and market signals. Nietzsche once again underestimated the madness of succeeding generations, which managed to draw out the misery of hard socialism for as long as three generations, rather than consigning their failed experiments to quick deaths.

"Digressions, incontestably, are the sunshine, they are the life, the soul of reading..." --Laurence Sterne. A good book of aphorisms, such as Nietzsche's permits one to revel in the surface delight that the whole thing is a series of digressions--though, when read closely, very little of it is truly digressive.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Thoughts on Labor Unions

I agree with all but two of the following quotes: Darrow was nuts, Brandeis was too idealistic in failing to see the qualitative differences between the leadership of labor unions and the management of private firms--which has never been equal and therefore never deserved equal power. Jevons has the deepest insight: the fact that it's the most deeply cynical is surely coincidence. 
 
I think Shaw missed his calling by the way: great potential as a sitcom writer.
 
 
All plucked from a collection in The Economist:
 
“Labour unions would have us believe that they transfer income from rich capitalists to poor workers. In fact, they mostly transfer income from the large number of non-union workers to a small number of relatively well-off union workers.”
Robert Anderson, writer, Just Get Out of the Way: How Government Can Help Business in Poor Countries (2004)
 
“Strong, responsible unions are essential to industrial fair play. Without them the labour bargain is wholly one-sided. The parties to the labour contract must be nearly equal in strength if justice is to be worked out, and this means that the workers must be organised and that their organisations must be recognised by employers as a condition precedent to industrial peace.”Louis Brandeis (pictured), lawyer (1856–1941), The curse of bigness: Miscellaneous papers of Louis D. Brandeis (1934)
 
“All classes of society are trades unionists at heart, and differ chiefly in the boldness, ability, and secrecy with which they pursue their respective interests.”William Stanley Jevons, economist (1835–82), The State in Relation to Labour (1882)
 
“No king on earth is as safe in his job as a Trade Union official. There is only one thing that can get him sacked; and that is drink. Not even that, as long as he doesn’t actually fall down.”George Bernard Shaw, playwright (1856–1950), The Apple Cart (1928)
 
“If you don’t like your job you don’t strike. You just go in every day and do it really half-assed. That’s the American way.”Homer Simpson, character in The Simpsons (American TV series)
 
“With all their faults, trade-unions have done more for humanity than any other organisation of men that ever existed. They have done more for decency, for honesty, for education, for the betterment of the race, for the developing of character in man, than any other association of men.”Clarence Darrow, lawyer (1857–1938), The Railroad Trainman (1906)

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

How to Proselytize

HBD means human biological diversity, that is, different races are...uh...different, including genetically.
 
Basically, to achieve persuasion, he's saying Don't Be An Autist: people respond to emotional manipulation, not logical manipulation. He is right. Political Correctness is a religion. Religions are built on faith. And faith founds itself on emotion. Transform their emotional relation to the topic and they become converts. Expose them to logical fallacies and they retreat into emotional denial. The fact that logic and science happen to be on our side ought not to be a disadvantage--though, in the wonderful world of propaganda it's often irrelevant.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Squeezing the Free Market Out

If you add up the cost of government, the cost of health care not paid by the government, and the cost of higher education not paid by the government--you come up with 50% of GDP. What these costs have in common is that they're unavoidable. By comparison, in countries like France and Germany, all these expenses are covered by the government--and most of them have tax levels lower than 50%. If you added the costs of regulations in America, the number would be pushing 55% of GDP. In 1960, that number was more like 35%, and it would have been 30% if we were spending as little on the military then as we are now. At this rate, the involuntary percentage of our GDP will reach 70% by 2040. Can an economy that is 30% free and 70% socialist avoid stagnation? Can it even avoid decline?

Friday, October 12, 2012

Some Poor Realities


The income estimates do not include unreported income, prevalent at the low and high ends of the scale. It also skips the value of services provided to our 2 million prisoners. By the way, the CBO is now basing its income estimates on the methodology exemplified in the graph. But, by including Medicare and Medicaid benefits as income, it completely alters the picture of inequality--and pushes the real working class to the bottom of the income pyramid.



A Republican doing what Republicans do not like to do: thinking seriously about reform of the welfare state, rather than wallowing in the idealistic rhetoric of abolition. The crux of his argument: "We can start by measuring outcomes (results) rather than inputs (how much money can we throw at the problem). Our effectiveness should be assessed, in part, by the per-person cost of moving individuals from dependency to self-sufficiency."

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Fun with Religion

Herewith Bertrand Russell's Parable of the Celestial Teapot:

"Many orthodox people speak as though it were the business of
skeptics to disprove received dogma rather than of dogmatists
to prove them. This is, of course, a mistake. If I were to
suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china
teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody
would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were
careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed
even by our most powerful telescopes. But if I were to go on
to say that, since my assertion cannot be disproved, it is
intolerable presumption on the part of human reason to doubt
it, I should rightly be thought to be talking nonsense. If,
however, the existence of such a teapot were affirmed in
ancient books, taught as the sacred truth every Sunday,
hesitation to believe in its existence would become a mark of
eccentricity and entitle the doubter to the attentions of the
psychiatrist in an enlightened age or of the Inquisitor in an
earlier time."

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Fun with Graphs

I think we can add another form of analysis (graphs) to the ever lengthening list of those proscribed by the priests of political correctness.
From The Economist magazine, High IQ development vs Low IQ development:


Thursday, September 27, 2012

A Decentralization Mechanism


They can already print guns with these tools--the Syrian insurgents could use a few. The legal obstacles are significant, though probably hard to enforce, as with other forms of digital piracy. Also, the right materials to produce goods remain necessary and can be a major part of the cost. Environmentally, over-enthusiastic home manufacturers could be a problem.

The last bit about the "replicating rapid prototyper" has particular potential.

The nanotech promoters have been speculating for decades (starting with Feynman back in 59') about nanomachines that can create new molecules and chemicals and replicate themselves as well. This concept is much further off from realization, however, and progress has been extremely slow except for systems using biological molecules like DNA.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Rethinking Conservatism

The problem with conservatism in America is that it always loses. It was losing before the land was even settled. The Puritans were the leftists of their time, too leftist to remain in the most leftist nation in the world, and America has adopted the spirit of the Puritans to guide its political and social development. As Orwell made clear, the end game of leftism is the abolition of memory, the imprisonment of the mind, the coercive imposition of equal conditions of body and mind for all people--in other words, the most absolute tyranny ever conceived--but never thus far fully implemented.The Soviet Union was merely a primitive and premature attempt in this direction. Our elites envision a purer achievement. They are more clever and, technologically, much better equipped to pursue their end. Chinese elites posit a similar goal in the long run, though their wonderful new infatuation with Leninist capitalism has temporarily diverted their attention. The world lies at the feet of this double hegemony.

The following website offers a summary of the ideas of Mencius Moldbug, who has an unconventional notion of how conservatives (renamed reactionaries to escape the taint of centuries of retreat) may finally start winning in America (and by extension throughout the American imperium) and revive American fortunes and save us from the usual fate of empires. Moldbug is samizdat for the 21st century. Singapore (surprisingly little emulated) is probably the closest realized approach to this conception of government:


 
My two main issues with these ideas:

1. Classical international law may not be possible for much longer given the continuing spread of WMDs to smaller and smaller entities. This technological fait accompli, provided that it proceeds apace into disseminated bio- and nanoweapons capabilities, would create conditions for either anarchy or a single global state. This is because deterrence does not work for these types of weapons. This would be sufficient to undo the Moldbug plan.

2. The other issue is the risk that some states will be commandeered by psychopaths who, moved more by passion than profit, visit grievous harms upon their people or decide to predate upon neighboring states. However, reactionary arrangements do not create this risk. They suffer the lesser flaw of not necessarily eradicating it. The risk of non-reactionary arrangments going psycho is sufficiently clear from history: any form of government yet tried faces this risk to one degree or another. The reactionary neocameralist form ought to incur a lower risk than most, perhaps lower than any, assuming it is attempted in a civilized nation. Even with global implementation of neocameralist regimes, the requirement of an international balance of power would remain in effect (at least until the problems associated with my first issue transcend known contingencies).

If you're interested in readings from the source, the collected works of Moldbug, as generously and most needfully reorganized by an acolyte:

 
I'm working my way through--verbose stuff, but with compensations in cleverness and humor.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Matrix Musings


I'm too much of an agnostic to buy into this bit, since we do not know the number of simulations or the number of original histories:

Is ‘this’ history or its simulation? More precisely: is ‘this’ a contemporary biological (brain-based) simulation, or a reconstructed, artificial memory, run on a technological substrate ‘in the future’? That is a question without classical solution, Moravec argues. It can only be approached, rigorously, with statistics, and since the number of fine-grained simulated histories (unknown but probably vast), overwhelmingly exceeds the number of actual or original histories (for the sake of this argument, one), then the probabilistic calculus points unswervingly towards a definite conclusion: we can be near-certain that we are inhabitants of a simulation run by artificial (or post-biological) intelligences at some point in ‘our future’. At least – since many alternatives present themselves – we can be extremely confident, on grounds of statistical ontology, that our existence is non-original (if not historical reconstruction, it might be a game or fiction).

Friday, September 21, 2012

An Ever Bigger Beast

The government is eating the economy. Notice, though, that people have not woken up yet. We will have to hit the wall first. For now, we're just borrowing to solve our problems. Massive tax increases are the wall, and they can only be delayed for so long. I expect the political atmosphere will then become decidedly ugly, uglier even than today because the reality of the situation will by uglier. How this may interplay with the demographic shift toward the Democrats will be interesting.
Eventually, China will stop funding us. Already their funding runs at the minimum level they calculate will prevent a crisis in our economy (and, by extension, in their export trade). There isn't another comparable source of funding. There isn't likely to be. That means interest rates on government debt will go up, making the fiscal situation even less sustainable. Also, the baby boomers are retiring into a socialist morass of vast handouts and bureaucratic entanglements. The population is Mexicanizing. Given these countercurrents, it will be a major challenge to increase productivity at a sufficient rate to maintain current median family income levels--which have not increased in 40 years, except for whatever improvements medicine has provided.

Saturday, September 8, 2012

Socialism by Other Means


This is the "republican" version of socialism, otherwise known as corporate welfare. At this point, the entire financial system has a federal backstop, so that financiers get all the profits and taxpayers all the losses--not only flagrantly corrupt, but massively inefficient resource allocation to ensure poor economic growth in perpetuity. That is the nature of socialist economies: corruption plus inefficiency.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

An Unfavorable Disparity


Even if we got our solar panels for free, we'd still be paying 50% over the German rate. If we reformed this system, solar would be highly attractive without subsidies in the SW states, and might reach competitive levels in the SE as well. I didn't realize how padded our solar costs were--though this problem is much attenuated for commercial solar installations.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

A Fantasist's Fantasy

A fantasy novelist (physics major too) on how to do proper fantasy:


The only error here, mentioning karate instead of a useful art, must be forgiven for preceding MMA's lessons. Reading this makes it seem like Comic fantasy would be easier to write than any other variant--the comedy of impotence, incapacity, failure, delusion.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Shepherding

It's not surprising that the great gay mafia is developing a talent for visual propaganda--though their patrimony seems mainly verbal propaganda, a compelling visual element was always present for the dross of the earth. The irony is that the policies of the fetus-murdering Democratic party are, at core, probably as "Christian" as those of Mammon-worshipping Republicans. And both sides consider themselves morally superior. It's a beauty contest between a rat and a snake.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Whispers of Fathomable Potencies


The author, Greg Cochran, a physicist by training who transitioned into genetics and anthropology, is one of our most innovative scientific thinkers. The main insight here is that much is already possible in this direction, and other elements are probably close. China has major research efforts into human intelligence currently underway. Another blogger I read, Steve Hsu, a physics professor at Oregon, http://infoproc.blogspot.com/, is involved in consulting on one of their projects. After seeking samples worldwide, they are now sequencing the genomes of people with 145+ IQs (top tenth of a percent). That's a 1480 on the old SAT (Harvard's average was 1350). If we continue to play our petty social status games, for example political correctness, we will not only be outcompeted--"we will sleep with the Neanderthals."

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Self-Propelled?

Two solar power plants are being built in Spain without any government subsidies:



A number of other locations are not far behind in achieving grid-parity: California, Italy, Japan. This means solar is transitioning from a politically-driven industry to an economically-driven industry, the latter being a much more reliable basis of growth. If N. Africa ever stabilizes they could export gigantic amounts of solar generated power to Europe in the near future, just as our southwest will be supplying the midwest and eastern states within 10-20 years.

Thursday, May 31, 2012

The American Media: Running from Reality

A Censored Race War

The media is so in thrall to PC mandates that the black on white violence, which seems to be increasing in tempo and daylight boldness, simply disappears down the hole where our thought police keep all the thought crimes. Instead they circle endlessly back on the highly anomalous Trayvon story, as though it were representative and instructive instead of rare and misleading. This politicized exclusion of reality from American consciousness renders whites quite unnecessarily vulnerable to these attacks.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

The Greek Circle


The primary goal of this financial rigmarole is to blind the European taxpayers (ie the Germans) to the reality of their position. Imagine having a sordid, lying, cheating, stealing Section 8 tenant--then solving her insolvency by paying yourself the rent she owes you. Of course, this is only a temporary expedient until she reforms her ways!

Though most people cannot understand the procedural intricacies of the Eurocrats and their obliging Greek "friends", an editorialist can readily sum the figures for his readers. That sum, by the way, seems to be about $70 billion out the door and in the wind thus far, with real interest rates consuming about $5 billion a year so long as the Germans continue to service 75% of Greek debt. But, in addition to paying interest, they persist in sending more fresh capital into the black hole. Their total default exposure is around $170 billion just for Greece's public debt. Greek banks also owe debt to the Germans in the multibillion dollar range. If Greece leaves the EU, the nominal cost will probably be $300 billion or more. The real cost involved in radically upending business expectations and altering the terms of trade will be substantially higher. And the cost will fall upon the creditors primarily in either case. 

And then we have the Iberians.

Friday, May 25, 2012

Obama's Son

How could it be surprising that Obama would compare Trayvon Martin, a criminal in training wheels, to the son he might have had? That Obama would implicitly promote Trayvon as a typcial young black man? Black leaders have not promoted the interests of their people since at least 1965. They are in league with the socialist project to corrupt and debase their character. Socialists undermine blacks to prove that more government is necessary. The economic incentives created by the welfare state strongly promote family dissolution among the working and lower-middle classes of all races. It's too difficult for these people to cut against clear economic advantages in favor of the less tangible advantages (all but forgotten among multi-generational black single mothers) of family cohesiveness. Socialist policies create a self-fulfilling prophecy.
And, actually, Trayvon is typical of half of black men--but, he ought not to be and the Obamas and Sharptons, the race-hustlers, ought not to encourage this as a black self-image. A third of black men are felons. What percent serve in the military or make significant contributions of any kind? How many even support their children?

Sunday, May 20, 2012

A Sense of Those Who Matter

http://www.vdare.com/articles/graduate-school-admissions-race-and-the-white-status-game

This is particularly damning:
"Data gathered by Richard Sanders of the UCLA Law School shows that 53% of the black students who enter law school fail to qualify to become lawyers, versus 24% of white students. About 40 percent of black law school graduates (many of whom will have taken out crushing loans to pay three years of tuition) never pass the bar exam, compared to 15 percent of whites. Some will also waste additional years working dead-end day jobs while paying to take bar exam review courses at night, before finally giving up in despair."

Anywhere intellectual standards are imposed, major racial differences appear. Ideally, the analysis would also include Jews, who are not a comfortable fit within the white category. Their numbers are doubtless even better than those of the Asians. My first thought in seeing numbers like these is to wonder whether a sufficient number of men in the top IQ percentile are pursuing the ideal of progress, rather than just the idol of Mammon.

Friday, May 11, 2012

A Metaphysical Metamorphosis

The contemplation of God, and heaven, is a kind of burial, and sepulchre, and rest of the soul; and in this death of rapture, and ecstacy, in this death of the contemplation of my interest in my Saviour, I shall find myself, and all my sins interred, and entombed in his wounds, and like a lily in Paradise, out of red earth, I shall see my soul rise out of his blade, in a candour, and in an innocence, contracted there, acceptable in the sight of his Father.

John Donne

Riffing the 60s

This country began a process of self-destruction in the 60s, under pressure of the Cold War, from which we have not even begun to recover. Indeed, the vicious developments of that era have transformed into a vicious circle of perpetual decline and degradation. The Johnson-Nixon socialist axis, the interpretation of the war as a moral crime by the intelligentsia, the Johnson-Nixon civil rights laws which placed the federal government in the novel position of enforcing racist laws (previously racist laws had been state prerogatives), the Johnsonian decision to import Mexico, with its impervious traditions of corruption and ignorance--all of these shocks struck home in just a few years and all constituted overreactions to legitimate problems (except the immigration issue). And today, respectively, socialism grabs ever more of the economy and our liberty, political correctness has fully blossomed into entangling vines that encumber us all, government mandated racism (added to socialist paternalism) has further submerged the black race in sordid pathologies and has damaged the lower orders of all races, and one third of Mexico now resides in America, traditions largely intact, though increasingly succumbing to the lowest temptations offered by a government promoting socialism, racism, family dissolution, and, generally, the cause of the unproductive members of society against the productive. 

Thursday, April 12, 2012

The Truth: A Firing Offense


 This respectable old journalist was fired from the National Review for this. Also, it seems to have set the hearts of the PC mob aflame with fury. But, it's merely a rather mild, even bland compendium of common sense in black dealings. It says that blacks, relative to whites, are stupid and violent: take corresponding precautions. Oh, and our blacks have a racist bent, driven by historical resentments and an inferiority complex.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers


Some important intangibles are left out:

Most are in our favor (we beat them at innovation, IP culture, lower corruption, better environment protection, political and economic and intellectual freedoms, lingering traditions of liberty and freedom and individualism)

Some are in their favor (we're hurt by political correctness and blacks and mexicans and government unions and a parasitic, morally corrupt lower class and a "financialized" upper class of similarly low character).

Also, it's not just us vs. them. China is encircled by a number of medium powers (Russia, Japan, S. Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia) and one medium power with potential to become a great power (India). The only one of those nations with a China infatuation is Russia--and Russia is still in rapid decline, with an economy entirely dependent on natural resource extraction (a dumb economy) that recently lost its position among the top ten world economies. Top 17 economies circa 2011(notice that Brazil is almost in the top 5):



GDP
Nation Rank Population Total
U.S. 1 313 14800
Japan 3 126.5 5500
China 2 1337 5880
Germany 4 81.5 3380
France 5 65.3 2600
U.K. 6 62.7 2250
Italy 8 61 2070
Russia 11 138.7 1500
Spain 12 46.7 1400
Brazil 7 203 2200
Canada 10 34 1600
India 9 1189 1650
Mexico 14 114 1080
Australia 13 21.8 1270
Netherlands 16 16.8 790
Korea, South 15 48.8 1050
Turkey 17 78.8 780


Three of these have been on a rapid growth trajectory, doubling in size every 7-10 years:

China for 30 years

India for 20 years

Brazil for 10 years

Monday, April 9, 2012

A Documentary on Taxation


It might be useful to literalize the notion that we pay a third of our income to the government. In this vein, a film depicting people working directly for all the government departments instead of paying taxes (indirect work) could also be amusing. Four months total for the government, eight months for one's family. That would be 3-4 weeks under a drill sergeant or commanding officer, another 4 weeks under orders from the local nursing home or retirement resort, 2-3 weeks attempting to impart knowledge and values to the new and rising generation, a delighful 2-3 weeks supporting the duskier races in their slums and ghettoes and prisons, and on and on and on... Being assailed by the hundreds of federal agencies one after another, then by hundreds of state and local agencies could create a memorable image.   

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Horizon Shifters

An excellent piece on what strikes me as a fascinating mystery: why has a small Semitic tribe had such vast influence over mankind's intellectual development? Note particularly the statistical oddity that, for a normal distribution (like IQ), a modest advantage in averages translates into a great advantage at the far ends of the distribution. For example, assuming the Ashkenazim possess average IQs of 110 and gentiles run at 100--this means that a member of the former group is 13 times as likely as a member of the latter group to manifest a 160 IQ (which is 1 of 30,000 gentiles and 1 of 2,300 Ashkenazi). The ratio would be 7:1 at 145 IQ and 4:1 at 130 IQ. You see the pattern. This may largely explain the huge disproportion in Jewish Nobel prizes and Fields Medals relative to any other group. Also, these numbers match what I recently found in looking at gentile vs. Jewish acceptance rates at the top 10 American universities. Supposedly, half of such students are accepted on academic merit. This means the top tenth of a percent of gentiles are accepted--their average IQs exceed 146. At that level, statistics would lead to the expectation of a 7.5:1 acceptance ratio. Jews have a 14 fold greater acceptance rate, meaning the top 1.4% make it in. This would instead imply a 13 point gap in average Jewish-gentile IQs, assuming meritocratic standards are applied equally to Jews and gentiles. But, it's likely that the Jews work harder and have more admissions through legacies and university employee preferences--so the gap probably is closer to 10 points after all. I may post some of the stats I gathered later. 

Sunday, March 25, 2012

On Iran

I think it would be worth a try to finance insurrection by Iran's powerful non-Persian minorities, though I doubt it would work. Our real options, I suspect, are an air war with a minor dilatory effect on their nuke program or a ground war that dismantles it (and perhaps installs a proper regime)--to make things simple we should also break up the country on ethnic lines, to achieve stability and an American exit, and to weaken post-war Iran. The other road is to appease our way into a nuclear arms race among the Middle Eastern nations. 
The CIA Factbook says there are 15 million Azeris, 8 million Kurds, and 5 million other non-Persians in Iran. The total population is 78 million. Without the Kurds and Azeris it would be 55 million. If the Kurds in Iran, Iraq and Syria united, the new Kurdistan would contain about 15 million, a respectable force, especially given their substantial oil resources. There are 15 million more Kurds in Turkey, who might also break away in future. New Kurdistan's main weakness is a lack of access to the ocean if the new state's borders are set according to current population distributions. And the new Azerbaijan would have 24 million, also with oil. Both of these new nations ought to be sustainable and would weaken Iran and Iraq. The Turks derive no benefit beyond pride from controlling part of Kurdistan. They would be spared the expense of borders with Iran and Iraq, and the expense of fighting the endless Kurdish insurgency. Unfortunately, on this plan, the Iranians would not lose any significant part of their oil and gas reserves.