Sunday, October 18, 2009

Solar's Future

It seems that Washington state (otherwise known as the cloudiest state) has decided to subsidize some large solar installations within its borders. Unfortunately, because solar power initiatives are still the province of state government subsidies, the efficiencies that could be gleaned from the operation of competitive advantages among the states are being wasted. If there were federal subsidies instead, Washington state would not be building solar power installations at current prices: it would focus on its strengths, hydro and wind. The solar power build-out would commence in the most cost-effective locations first (the Southwest), and then gradually radiate out across the country as solar prices fell. If prices stopped falling before the nation was thus blanketed, the electical grid could be expanded utilizing DC current to provide low loss, long distance transmission from cheap producers of renewable energy of all kinds to areas that cannot produce such energy cheaply.
 
Another interesting fact is that PV solar has consistently fallen in price by about 5% per year since it was invented in the 50s. At this rate, in SoCal, with low cost financing (like an unsubsidized home equity loan) and without subsidies, PV solar should become market competitive around 2020.
 
An article on solar's future from an economic perspective (second article on the page): http://entropyproduction.blogspot.com/2007_05_01_archive.html
The key is the third graph.

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