Tuesday, November 18, 2008

The Question of Climatic Certainty

I've long said that the climate system is only partially understood--and, due to the complexity of it, the number of unknown variables and unknown interactions among them--it will never be fully understood. Mathematical theory makes it sufficiently clear that some problems are insoluble. This is one of them. But, finding the precise answer and estimating an approximation to it are different challenges. The former will never be possible, since it is prevented by mathematical laws (which tend not change)--however, an approximation appears to be possible even now. On climate change, thousands of scientists have invested several decades of effort to generate these approximations. In response, we ought to undertake such actions as are justified by their assessed accuracy and by the risk level they foretell.

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