Saturday, June 7, 2008

Iran

Here's an update on the slow motion catastrophe that is Iran:
 
I think the administration's new strategy of letting the UN take the lead on this issue for now, while encouraging its more aggressive posture towards Iran by providing further intelligence resources, is a wise evolution. The UN has more global credibility on this issue (like it or not). This means that if we hit them we will have a strong evidentiary foundation to defend the strikes. The UN's involvement may even, if gradually, cause the rest of the world to realize that the only possible beneficiaries of an Iranian nuclear program are Iran and its satellites. In other words, there are few rational, pragmatic reasons for other nations to defend the Iranian program (though some will make a blanket argument that all sovereign nations have a right to determine what is required for their own defense). I focus on this global PR situation not because we need the rest of the world's permission to do these strikes--but because consistent global pressure before such strikes become necessary appears to me a potentially significant factor that could help induce a voluntary abandonment of the nuclear program. Such a voluntary about-face (as Libya, South Africa, and Brazil have previously done) is the only good solution available. War with Iran could be disastrous on a number of levels and there is no guarantee that we could stop their program unless we occuppied the country, which no one wants to think about.

No comments:

Post a Comment